From the inconsistent stance of the PC
makers, it seems obvious that they’re on board with Windows 8, but not to the
point of commercial suicide. Many of those who have many specifically business customers
have shied away from a total endorsement, offering instead to keep the Windows
7 wheels turning for the time being.
Dell
has supported the Windows 8 launch with its own Surface design, the XPS Duo.
Microsoft, however, still sees PC makers as its problem
Having been quite badly burned in the past,
especially in respect of the ‘Vista Capable’ sticker fiasco, hardware makers
are much less keen on seeing the world exclusively the way that Microsoft does.
Almost without exception, if Windows 8 sells PCs then that’s what they’ll be
supplied with, but if it fails to light that blue touch paper then they’ll
bring you Windows 7 instead, or rely on Microsoft’s own downgrade cop-out for
Pro customers.
Those that stick rigidly to a Windows 8 or
nothing proposal might find themselves in a difficult place if the OS fails to
grab the public imagination. However, the buying public isn’t the really big
cash cow for PC makers - that would be the business sector which is feeling the
pinch in these difficult economic times.
What’s complicating the Windows 8 story is
that almost universally the OS has been ring fenced as unsuitable for business
deployment. That’s not to say that you can’t use the Pro version on a business
network, but the costs of retraining and integration with existing systems
makes it a choice that few businesses would want to embrace.
In addition, the Surface RT product has
none of the secure network protocols needed to use it on an administered
network and, as such, can’t be introduced into a secure environment.
However, what many business analysts are
saying is that touch computing isn’t going to fly in business, because it seems
more like playing than work. Having been asked in all seriousness by a director
of a company I worked if people really need a mouse to work Windows, I can see
the problem with selling touch control into business.
However, the biggest challenge that Windows
8 faces in the business sector is inertia, because once companies have
something that works, they’re inclined to stick with it. Statistically, lots of
businesses are still using Windows XP and some even Windows 2000. A few have
been convinced to move to Windows 7, in numbers that would hardly be classed as
a mass exodus. Half of all Enterprise customers have deployed it but not
exclusively.
From a business perspective, every minute
an employee spends learning how to use it is time that they could be earning
money for the business, but they’re not. And, if you’re going to learn
something entirely new, then why should it be Windows 8? Why not Apple Mac or
Linux?
At the launch of Windows 8, CEO Steve
Ballmer was bullish about the Enterprise edition of the new OS, “Business IT
departments tell us that Windows 8 will give them what they need and give
employees the opportunity to choose the Windows 8 devices they want.”
I think that statement hit the nail on the
head, because most enterprise customers aren’t interested in employee choices,
and they’re very focused on reducing costs currently.
Waiting For Surface Pro
In the interview that Steve Ballmer gave
where he said that Surface RT sales were ‘modest’, he was keen to deflect that
issue by saying it should resolve when the Surface Pro appears early next year.
With full Intel compatibility and a hefty price, this is where Microsoft gets
to realise if its assertions about hardware makers being the source of all its
problems are a reality or delusion.
In
the interview that Steve Ballmer gave where he said that Surface RT sales were
‘modest’, he was keen to deflect that issue by saying it should resolve when
the Surface Pro appears early next year
It’s Microsoft’s OS, on its own hardware,
marketed by itself, and if it fails, finding someone else to blame could be a
real challenge.
If the Surface Pro sees more modest sales,
the implications for Microsoft, and the visible destruction of its world view,
could be very serious from both a commercial view and also for
disliked-by-Wall-Street CEO Steve Ballmer.
The importance of this product launch is
now paramount, even more than the Windows 8 one, because if this goes wrong,
then the last hope that Microsoft hasn’t entirely misjudged the situation will
have vaporised.
And, at the point of going to press,
Microsoft has no official launch date for Surface Pro or a price.
Final Thoughts
If anything has failed here, it’s probably
not Windows 8 but rather Microsoft itself. The problem that it has, and which
Windows 8 has failed to address, is that the public associates it with the past
glories of computing, while it sees companies like Apple and Google as the
visionaries of the future.
That is probably unfair, as Windows 8 is a
radical departure in many respects. However, it’s still ‘Windows’, and by
definition that’s a legacy tool with a bus-load of baggage that’s far too heavy
to be classed as carry-on.
Put yourself in Microsoft’s shoes. Would
you like to decide that the Windows era is over yourself or would you prefer
that the purchasing public tell you that it’s done?
A
midnight opening for the release of Windows 8 in Ireland hinted that this might
not be the most popular product that Microsoft has ever released
However, Microsoft doesn’t believe that
it’s over, and Windows 8 is its rather odd attempt to sell that concept to an
increasingly disbelieving customer base. Until Microsoft embraces the software
armageddon that Windows ending must be for it, it’s never going to actually
move forward. It’ll just spin increasingly rapidly in the same spot. And that’s
what Windows 8 is a perfect representation of.
What else I’m sensing is a reluctance on
Microsoft’s part to entirely get behind this product, and it seems to have the
odd conviction that it’s somehow being stabbed in the back by the PC makers.
I’ve seen it argued that this is why it built Surface itself, as it couldn’t
rely on third-party hardware makers to carry this flag.
That’s a leap for me, because when
Microsoft brought Vista to market, the hardware makers were a veritable
meat-wall for the public backlash, even if Microsoft still felt some heat.
What’s undeniable is that Windows 8 is starting
to smell somewhat of Vista. Enough of the Vista era people are still at
Microsoft to remember how that went, where the more critical press started
poking holes in the balloon before it was released. Microsoft kept the
‘business as usual’ mantra going for an implausibly long time, before finally
accepting that it had mucked up badly and rushing Windows 7 to market.
Whatever
the truth, Windows 8 is making many in the hardware and software industry very
nervous, and the more nervous they get, the greater the likelihood is that it
will fuel a self-fulfilling prophesy and contribute to the failure.
From a corporate perspective, those things
are humiliating, because it’s not like Microsoft is small enough to easily
hide, or evade the barbed comments. So the mode that Microsoft seems to be
entering now is a slightly more self deprecating one than we’ve been familiar
with before, where the language is much less macho and it’s accepting that
Windows 8 might not be to everyone’s taste.
That’s the giveaway really, because even
when Vista wasn’t setting the world on fire, Microsoft was remarkably bullish
about its prospects, and it’s not remotely that positive about Windows 8.
Steve Ballmer clearly isn’t going to wave a
white flag from the top of the Microsoft Redmond HQ any time soon, but the firm
might be positioning itself to start calling Windows 8 ‘transitional’ or use
some other intermediate analogy. I’ve already seen a few leaked pieces of
information about Windows 9, and that’s never a good thing in the context of
the new version being weeks old.
What Microsoft isn’t saying is how many
Windows 8 and Surface machines it’s shipped and what the take-up is, and
history suggests we won’t see those numbers for a while yet. This is why I’m
inclined to examine body language and the positioning of Microsoft partners to
extrapolate how deep the Windows 8 waters run.
Whatever the truth, Windows 8 is making
many in the hardware and software industry very nervous, and the more nervous
they get, the greater the likelihood is that it will fuel a self-fulfilling
prophesy and contribute to the failure. Microsoft isn’t really helping that
situation, possibly because some in the company don’t like where Microsoft has
taken Windows.
We are where we are, and it’s too late to
retract this move, so Microsoft needs to work hard on making Windows 8 the
upgrade to have or move to Windows 9 as rapidly as it can.
In shorthand, many people refer to Windows
8 as ‘W8’, which is a texting abbreviation for ‘wait’. I think subliminally
most people see Windows 8 and think exactly that.
However, there’s a reality here that
Microsoft isn’t really comprehending, which is that if Windows 8 is a huge
success, it won’t return the company to the level of domination that it once
had. Microsoft needs to adjust its expectations and then be relieved when its
new OS achieves more modest goals.
