Information Technology, frantic
change in the only constant. We take a look at what’s new, what prevails – and
what will be completely forgotten
The PC Era is ending: 3 times as many
portable devices to be sold
Here are some figures from 2011 that can be
said to be a precursor to the most important trend of the next year 2011 saw
more smartphones sold across the globe as compared to computers (notebooks
& PCs counted together). And with almost all the latest cell phones in the
world quickly turning "smart", prominent market researchers state
that sales would be so good that the number of smartphones would reach anywhere
near three times that of classic PCs by 2016. The future of the tablet seems bright,
too - in the next four years, tablets are expected to achieve sales figures
equal to that of computers. These figures support the fact that the post-PC era
has already started. And yet, Microsoft attempts to get a foothold in the
smartphone market by radically changing a successful and widespread operating
system through Windows 8. This is, of course, not without good reason.
Meanwhile, Google and Apple have a good laugh almost a million new Android
devices are bought every day. Apple's sales figures remain legendary and still
continue to grow. Smartphones have turned into mini computing devices using
which one can also make calls. They are becoming increasingly powerful and
through connections to fast networks can run complex Internet applications
without problems.
Our Prognosis: With billions of people
having round the clock Internet access via smartphones, the commercial and
cultural potential (and risks) can only be divined.
Worldwide
sales in millions
New Touch Devices and Hybrid Notebooks
The upcoming Windows version's tiled Metro
interface can most easily be operated using your fingers. It's no wonder that
hybrid notebooks are particularly in demand with the imminent Windows 8. ASUS
has stepped into this new segment with the Taichi (image below), which snaps
shut and can also be used as a tablet, thanks to an additional touch screen on
the outside of the casing.
Our Prognosis: Touch functions would only
be possible in high-end notebooks, while low-cost notebooks would give you a
trackpad to navigate between functions.
Asus
Taichi
Quad-Core CPUs in inexpensive
Smartphones
The tablets and smartphone arms race
continues. An increasing number of quad- core CPUs are being built and soon
will be featured not just in high-end devices, but even in entry-level devices
too. NVIDIA's Kai platform will enable tablets with Tegra-3 chipsets to be sold
for under $230. ASUS, Acer and Google will soon start manufacturing Android
tablets in this price class.
Our Prognosis: In 2013, four cores will be
standard. But they are hardly practical if the software can’t take advantage
here.
Quad-Core
CPUs in inexpensive Smartphones
The Rise Of ’Phablets'
Smartphone displays are becoming larger by
the day. The forerunner of this trend is the surprisingly successful Samsung
GALAXY Note, which has already sold over seven million units despite (or due
to) its huge 5.3-inch screen. The market researchers from ABI Research estimate
that the 'phablets' category (amalgamation of "phone" and
"tablet") would form an essential part of the smartphone boom.
Our Prognosis: Over 200 million 'phablets'
will be sold by 2015.
Samsung
GALAXY Note
Affordable Premium Ultrabooks
Ultrabooks are trendy, but they were too
expensive until recently. However, AMD, with its new CPUs, is all set to
relieve the pricing pressure in this segment. Furthermore, Intel has discovered
how to build laptops using plastic that's just as stable and durable as
aluminum.
Affordable
Premium Ultrabooks
Faster SSDs via PCIe
Solid State Drives are growing faster at
such a rate that they will soon become too fast for even the SATA-Ill port (up
to 600MB/s). The solution to this is PCIe. SSDs can easily access higher
bandwidths in the form of PCIe cards - like with Intel's expensive SSD 910
(image above), which achieves a blinding 2,000MB/s in benchmarks as a PCIe-x8
card. This is four times the current SATA-Ill SSD speeds.
Our Prognosis: If the prices fall,
PCIe-SSDs would own the future by 2015.
Intel's
expensive SSD 910
60TB on 3.5-inch Drives
In the next four years, a new technology
called HAMR ("Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording") will enable magnet
drives to have data densities of up to 1TBit per quarter square inch, which is
considerably high. With this technology, the drive would be heated by a laser
for writing data to handle a weak magnetic field and accommodate much more
data.
Our Prognosis: By 2016, desktop HDDs will
already have 30-60TB of capacity. Notebook drives (2.5-inch) would provide 10
to 20 TB.
60TB
on 3.5-inch Drives
Windows PC Embraces Apps
How does one incite millions upon millions
of users to spend the most possible amount of money for software, music, movies
and other digital content? By presenting offers in an attractive online catalog
at the right time, providing them for free or at an astoundingly nominal
starting price of a few cents, having a flexible payment process, and allowing
downloads with just a click. What Apple has achieved with iTunes and the App
Store, and what still works like a charm for Google Play should also apply to
Microsoft computers and smartphones on much grander scales. The Redmond-based
software giant's new Internet sales portal should start in the fall of this
year, alongside Windows 8. The Windows Store is completely integrated into the
operating system and provides two different software: classic Windows programs
("legacy Windows apps") as well as the so-called Metro apps, which
focus on the new tile design of Windows 8 and touch functions.
The Windows Store would be the only (legal)
source for Metro apps. Microsoft has still kept additional (partly essential)
details under the wraps. This is because a lot is at stake here; if Microsoft
fails, other service providers, like Amazon and Facebook, would be delighted.
And thanks to e-commerce know-how and their huge user bases, they can achieve
success with their very own App stores.
Our Prognosis: Even if Windows 8 and the
Windows Store are a total flop, the App trend, along with sales and
distribution via online stores will spread across the Windows world.
5nm Procesors Arrives
Chip transistors are shrinking. Intel is
researching structure widths of just 7 and 5nm. As of now, there more interim
stages (currently chips are at 22nm): 2013 onwards, CPUs would be manufactured
in 14nm and in 10nm by 2015. But the production will get more expensive. By
2015, a new chip factory would cost USD15 billion, which the biggest
manufacturers like Intel, Samsung and TSMC could still be able to afford.
Our Prognosis: Chips would become faster
and more efficient - but the number of production companies is still too few.
