Even when the base price for 2G is being
debated and the 3G tariffs are registering a free fall, 4G services are
supposed to be taling over as the revenue engines for Telcosriding on the data
wave. However, a recent research report from PWC states that it is highly
unlikely that data use revenues will grow from the current level of around 14
percent of total revenue to 50 per cent by 2020.
RCom
4G
TRAI, while figuring out per unit 4G
spectrum rates, had assumed that data services will contribute more than half
of an operators’ revenues by 2020. Analysts and industry operators are now
arguing that this basis of pricing spectrum is wrong. At present, non-voice
revenues as a percentage of total revenues stand at 14 per cent, out of which
pure data services contribute only 5per cent and the rest comes from message
–based services.
PWC has a sound basis-Even in mature
telecom markets such as Denmark, Italy and the US, the contribution of data
services to revenue is only 19.6 per cent, 27.2 per cent and 33.20 per cent,
respectively in 2020. In fact, not even Japan has 50 per cent date revenues as
a proportion of total revenues today.
Mukesh
Ambani led Reliance Industries (RIL), which is set to launch its 4G services in
India, will make its own mobile phones
Sometime this week, Mukesh Ambani put off
the launch of RCom 4G services by an year. Even while Airtel has been quick to
launch 4G, for all purposes this is a soft launch. Rcom entry has been deferred
because the markets are not matured yet. Lack of demand may also see two
foreign operators – Augere Wireless (backed by France telecom) and US chipmaker
qualcomm- quit the 4G data segment.
So Now the question that begs to be
answered is given sluggish market maturity, lack of demand – andn the fact that
most mature telecom markets havent performed at 50% revenue contribution
levels, was the industry APEX body – TRAI over setting its targets and the
spectrum pricing? For those who invested in, the case of a break even seems a
little distant already.
