Leaders tend to lose: This is how Richard
N. Foster of management consultancy McKinsey summarized a generally observed
phenomenon of technology change in 1986. And in reality: The economic history
is full of ruins of great companies who believed their size alone protects them
from the revolutions of vital innovations and technology changes. An American
saying goes like this: "From rags to riches and back again in three
generations." The grandfather establishes a company and leads it to
success, thbe son held on to this achievement and the grandson ruined
everything. In the IT and mainly the online world, it happens a lot faster - it
doesn't take three generations any more till the top companies drive against
the wall.
The IT sector is continuously
revolutionizing. Only the companies that build their future based on their own
survival will last
Only the one who takes over wins
Forecasting the development of technology
companies is the most difficult. Many dignified institutions and experts of
their subjects have failed miserably with their forecasts - because they
estimated the underlying technologies falsely. The academy of sciences thought
of crude oil as "a gluey liquid which stinks and cannot be put to any
use". The computer science pioneer John von Neumann on whose fundamental
computer architecture the PCs are based even today thought in 1949 that the
limits of computer technology are reached long back. "There is no money
for us in Internet" - this statement of Bill Gates from the year 1994 is
infamous. In retrospect, this statement is considered as undesired visionary
because it is applicable for Microsoft even today.
One can predict the future only by
inventing it - a frequent statement of my college professor. In this sense, the
IT enterprises are successful at least in the medium term which
"undertake" on their own - they act and not just react. Thus it is
necessary to face everyone who is driving the market. Amazon Is Amazon a
commercial or IT company? Rather the latter. In spite of the excellent
logistics, its success is based on its own core processors in the IT. Here one
has managed to become a world wide turning platform for all types of goods and
a variety of tradesman from an online bookseller who was erstwhile sneered at.
It was understood that one cannot only depend on sales. Amazon primarily offers
decision support for purchase which is provided largely even by the customers
with the help of evaluations. Amazon is indifferent to the fact which book or
which flatscreen monitor is sold. Important is that the customers find the
right product for themselves. Now Amazon is also offering IT services and
computer capacities - a fact largely unnoticed by the general public. Possibly
the next revolution is emerging: If it works out, electronic reading devices
can be brought intensively in the market and to standardize virtual - then many
publishing houses must be dress warmly. Then the companies can divert the
already digitally available book contents of the authors practically directly
to the kindles of the customer. The production costs will be almost zero and
Amazon could distribute a lot more profit share to the authors as the publisher.
Only a chip card for the Amazon reading device is missing to locate the pirate
copies to some extent. Amazon definitely has the marque power to set a standard
here.
Apple - The recently deceased Steve Jobs had managed to create a brand aura
which is unique. No other company has managed that the customers do not ask any
cost-benefit question regarding its products which are very irritating for the
manufacturer. Only the design and nimbus of Apple products is so alluring that
the customers buy them without hesitation.
If you have observed the fans - the
customers of the US manufacturer - in an Apple store, how they love to spend
their time, how carefully and respectively - even lovingly - they carry the
purchased products from the shop, you would know for sure that Apple would
still be a success even after five years. Apple fans are not buying something
new from Apple because the old one is not functioning. They are buying it
because it is something new. There is no reason to assume that it would be change
after the death of Steve Jobs.
Google -
Critics accuse Google of being a "One Trick Pony". The company earns
only from the clicks on the paid search advertisements and AdWords named.
Anyone who sees the financial statements of Google would wonder why this would
not be sufficient based on the exorbitant profits. The shar employee in Google
amounts in six-digit range, in Nokia it is only in the four digit range. Google
is moving stringently regardless of the alleged monoculture in the sales
channel and linearly towards its initial goal especially lately: Providing
information to the people which the need at present -respective of their output
device. The word "search machine" does not appear in the mission
statement of the company -which is often overlooked.
Google will create its own future: The
mobile development is going very slowly for the company. What has been done? A
freely available and open source operating system for smartphones is
developing. Just after a brief time after its start, it is the most widely used
and hence the most successful system. The advantages of the perfect integration
and synchronization of stationary, mobile and local services are not only
bringing a positive use experience to the users but they are also driving the
usage numbers of the corresponding Google services upward. Google+, the new
simple-to-operate social network of the company, shows that the spirits there
are up again after a period of less appropriate decisions of the old
innovations. The positive charged mix of the cleverest brains I also
contributing to it which operates Google almost magically in spite of the
expensive application procedure.
Huge thanks to the vast exhibition
Samsung Many sellers recognize the brand
name Samsung only from the electronic products on the shelf. However, many IT
companies are dependent to a great extent on Samsung in the meantime. Memory
chips, displays of all sizes, electronic set-ups and many more bear the
character of the South-Korean company under the cap. The company has relied on
convergence in the area of flat-screen televisions at a very early stage: It
promotes the comfortable connection of devices to web and outdistanced the
established manufacturer in shortest time period. Even in case of smartphones,
Samsung practically caught up overnight and became one of the most important
players in the current market. However, a high willingness of Samsung to invest
is the critical point for a positive future evaluation. In the last year, an
amount of over RM72 billion was invested for further development - more than
IBM, Intel and Sony put together.
Cisco In case of the American gold miners
of the yesteryears, there were only few true winners at the end despite the
exhilaration. The situation appeared a lot different for the producers of
tools. The sellers of pickaxe, sifters and blades raked in a lot of money.
Cisco, the manufacturer of network infrastructure is in a similar situation
today. Whether web users save their data in Cloud or use a simple online
service -Cisco provides the network management behind the curtains and profits
from the ever-increasing online boom. The company turned out to be innovative
from the very start and is one of the technological drivers in the network
technology. Cisco had diversified sufficiently at an early stage so that today
the producer covers practically completely not only the necessary backend
systems, but is also positioned well in the end-user market.
Poor vision of the losers
Why the famous names such as Facebook,
Microsoft, eBay or Yahoo are not a part of this list? Answer: For all the great
problems which make a stable future doubtful.
Facebook The social network is still the
greatest online community of the world. But: A keen view tells that really
sound business model is still not available. Facebook users do not use the
offer in the "search mode" as in case of Google, but in the
"entertainment mode". The fact that they respond quite well to the
advertisement - proves that Facebook is so far responsible for it. The complete
user profiles with the help of which advertisers would provide Facebook users
with appropriately tailored advertisements do not generally deliver the
required quality. Moreover, Facebook has been frequently criticized due to the
lack of data protection. The timeline function retraces the life of the users
from birth - that's a step too far even for many online addicts.
Microsoft The company does not have an
impressive strategy of how it wants to shape the permanently dwindling meaning
of operating system in conjunction with Cloud Computing and thus also the risk
of office products. The departments for online products are still sparsely used
in case of redmonders. In spite of this, resources were used for the
preservation of the old IT world - a perilous strategy.
eBay On one hand, the web service is
presently advertising offline very often as one may still believe that there is
a fastselling item here. On the other hand, the company is changing intensively
into an online market place from the original auction platform - an offer,
where the competitor Amazon is excellently positioned. What if Amazon suddenly
provides resources for auction sale?
Yahoo The web pioneer has done everything
falsely since the internet boom in 2000. The growing market has kept the former
giant still alive: high increasing rate on Internet is compensating for the
management error so far. Yahoo turned down Sergey Brin and Larry Page with a
smile at the end of 1990s as they were introducing a new search technology to
the company. It was tersely stated as one cannot earn money with search
machines. No one was interested. Brin and Page were practically forced to
establish their own company. What an irony - and a lesson.
